Fareed Zakaria GPS

Fareed Zakaria on Flight 370 and Conspiracy Theories

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Fareed Zakaria on Flight 370 and Conspiracy Theories

Recently, Fareed Zakaria began his show with a commentary on Flight 370 and the human tendency to subscribe to conspiracy theories.  What I find so interesting (and so true) about “Fareed’s Take” discussion of psychology.  He describes Hanlon’s Law which he describes as the maxim: “never attribute to malice what can be better explained by incompetence.”  This is a principle that too many lawyers and policy makers fail to appreciate. 

 

Here is how the segment began: 

For those of you tired of the coverage of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, I want you to try an experiment.

When you’re with a group of friends – whose eyes might roll over when you even bring up the issue – ask them what they think happened to the plane. Very quickly you will find yourselves in the midst of a lively discussion – with many, different, competing theories, each plausible, each with holes.

The plane was hijacked, someone will say. But then why were there no demands? It was an accident, someone else will say. But then why were there no distress signals? This mystery of what actually happened is at the heart of the fascination with this story. And the mystery has now morphed into an ever increasing number of conspiracy theories about what actually happened that fateful day last month when the aircraft disappeared.

There are YouTube clips suggesting that aliens are involved, blog posts accusing the Iranians of hijacking the plane, and many who believe that the passengers and crew are still alive, perhaps on an island somewhere – like in the television show “Lost”.

I was thinking about some of these theories the other day as I was looking at a new book by Harvard law professor and former Obama official, Cass Sunstein. It’s titled, Conspiracy Theories – and Other Dangerous Ideas. The lead essay in the book explains why conspiracy theories spread – and Flight 370 is a perfect example of his logic. Sunstein treats conspiracy theories seriously, by which I mean he doesn’t assume that people are crazy to believe them. . . .

Economics of Demographics

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Economics of Demographics

Too often in recent years,  economic debates in the United States have focused on (often self-created) short-term crises rather than the big picture.  One such big picture issue is the economics of demographics.  According to conventional wisdom, an aging population is a recipe for financial shortfall. However, Fareed Zakaria GPS recently discussed a study that found that Japan’s aging population may be beneficial for its fiscal health.  

Here is how this “What In The World?” segment began: 

We were struck by some startling data this past week. Last year saw Japan’s population fall by 244,000 people – the largest natural decline in that country’s history. It’s a trend that’s getting worse. By 2060, Japan projects that its population will have fallen by a third; 40 percent of Japanese will be retirees. It sounds like a recipe for disaster. Imagine a United States where half the population is over the age of 65: Social Security would collapse, health care costs will explode.

So, we were surprised to see a headline in the latest edition of The New Scientis claiming “Japan’s aging population could actually be good news.”

How on earth is that possible? After all, China relaxed its “one-child” policy last month precisely so it could avoid the fate of Japan. And that fate, if you go by conventional wisdom, seems to be slowing growth, and leading to unsustainable debt. Why? Because our entire system is based on having enough young workers to pay for pensions and government services.

Well, according to The New Scientist, perhaps we’ve been looking at the wrong data. . . . 

Extreme Swiss Inequality Reforms

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Extreme Swiss Inequality Reforms

President Obama recently stated that inequality is a “defining challenge” for the United States. Meanwhile, Fareed Zakaria reported that Switzerland, a country with significantly less inequality than the US, considered radical reforms to reduce inequality, including capping executive compensation.  

Here is the beginning of the segment from Fareed Zarakia GPS: 

If there’s one country in the world that looks like a utopia, its name must be Switzerland. This is a country that has it all. The average income is $82,000 a year – 65 percent more than the average American income. Everyone has great healthcare, childcare, and education. The unemployment rate is 3 percent. There is almost no corruption. According to the OECD, of 34 developed countries surveyed, the Swiss have the greatest degree of trust in their government. And, of course, it is a spectacular country with great traditions of skiing, cheese, chocolate, and wine.

 

What could possibly go wrong? Well, quite a lot, actually.

The Swiss are furious about income inequality. The story is a familiar one. According to Reuters, in 1984 top earners in Swiss firms made 6 times as much as the bottom earners. Today, they make 43-times what bottom earners make. At some banks and firms, CEOs make 200-times the salary of the lowest-paid employee.

 

Now, before you assume things about Europe and European attitudes towards capitalism, remember that Switzerland is one of the most business-friendly countries in the world. The conservative Heritage Foundation has an “Index of Economic Freedom.” Switzerland ranks 5th in the world, well ahead of the United States of America.

 

But in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the Swiss have become far more concerned about the nature of today’s free market system. So, some Swiss political groups came up with a plan. It’s called the 1 is to 12 initiative. The highest-paid company executive should make a maximum of 12 times what the lowest-paid employee makes. In other words, no one should earn more in one month than someone else makes in a year.

Fareed Zakaria: Why No One Is Thankful For The Federal Government

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Fareed Zakaria: Why No One Is Thankful For The Federal Government

The most recent episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS began with “Fareed’s Take” on trust in government, particularly the federal government.  Zakaria diagnoses the systemic and political causes for the near historic lows in confidence in the federal government and discusses solutions.  

Here is a brief description of the segment: 

Fareed Zakaria explains why Americans have reason not to be grateful for federal government this Thanksgiving.

Fareed Zakaria on Obstacles to Iranian Nuclear Negotiations

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Fareed Zakaria on Obstacles to Iranian Nuclear Negotiations

This past Sunday, Fareed Zakaria began his show by giving his “take” the Iranian nuclear negotiations.

Here is a description of the video: 

Saudi Arabia is not going to accept any deal on Iran’s nuclear program, no matter what is in it. Saudi objections to the Islamic Republic of Iran are existential. The Saudis regard Tehran as a heretical, Shiite, Persian enemy that must be opposed. Its antipathy predates Iran’s nuclear program and will persist whatever the resolution of it.

And then the Republicans in the U.S., some of whom have serious objections and others who see this as an easy avenue to outflank President Obama on the right, placing him in the familiar spot of a liberal Democrat who is soft on America’s foes.

Many of us have assumed that the greatest obstacle to a deal would come from Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards remain deeply anti-American, and they may well oppose the concessions that President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif would have to make to get a deal. But it’s now clear that greater obstacles might lie in the path of the negotiators on the other side. The minute any deal is announced, Saudi Arabia and Israel will denounce it, and many Republicans will join in. Given that Congress would have to pass laws to lift any of the major sanctions against Iran, this could prove to be an obstacle that cannot be overcome.

So Obama faces two major challenges. First he has to get a deal that the hard-liners in Tehran can live with. Then he has to get one that the hard-liners in Washington and Jerusalem and Riyadh can abide. If he can do both, maybe he will deserve his Nobel Peace Prize after all.

Watch the video for the full Take or read the TIME column