The Economics of Debt Ceiling, Affordable Care Act, Welfare

The Economics of Debt Ceiling, Affordable Care Act, Welfare

The most recent Planet Money podcast discussed the three most significant political issues of this past week—(1) the debt ceiling, (2) Affordable Care Act and (3) welfare system debates. Although discussion of the debt ceiling is somewhat dated (since we did not hit it), the story explains what is at stake in debt ceiling debates include the outcome of a possible default.

Here is a description of the podcast:

On today’s show: Three ripped-from-the-headlines stories from Planet Money.

What A U.S. Default Would Mean For Pensions, China, And Social Security

If the government defaults on its debt, people all over the world who have loaned the government money won’t get paid on time.

One Key Thing No One Knows About Obamacare

Obamacare won’t work unless healthy people buy insurance. No one knows whether they will.

Is Welfare A Rational Alternative To Work?

A new paper argues that the value of various welfare benefits add up to well over $30,000 a year. People on welfare disagree.

Looking Across the Pond to Prevent Political Gridlock

Looking Across the Pond to Prevent Political Gridlock

After sixteen days of government shutdown and being on the brink of federal default, Congress passed, and the President signed, a bill that will re-open the government and raise the debt ceiling, preventing high stakes budgetary brinkmanship at least until 2014.  In keeping with what has become a theme this past week this story from NPR’s Story of the Day podcast and Weekend Day Edition Saturday discusses possible solution to gridlock in Washington.  The story interview’s comparative political scientists about how the American political system compares to European democracies, which generally do not find themselves deadlocked by political paralysis.  While is it unlikely that the U.S. will soon amend the Constitution to adopt a parliament, the story discusses some important differences between how elections are financed and political negotiations are conducted in Europe and the U.S.

Here is how the segment begins: 

No Child Left Behind: For Better or for Worse, It Is (Probably) Here to Stay

I just finished reading a book about the radical change in American public education policy: No Child Left Behind and the Transformation of Federal Education Policy, 1965-2005, by Patrick J. McGuinn.

Here is a brief summary of his findings, so you don’t have to read the entire book if you don’t have the time.

Beginning in the 1960’s, the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) was created during the Johnson Administration as part of the Great Society. This marked a significant increase in federal involvement in public education. Whereas public education was traditionally the jurisdiction of the states, the federal government now became a player. The policy regime resulting from the ESEA, the equity regime, was centered on the idea that the federal government had the responsibility to provide financial assistance to underprivileged students. The focus was on policy inputs. After the Nation at Risk report in the early 1980’s, a focusing event, public education began to increase in salience as an issue needing to be addressed by government. National-level politicians, wanting to capitalize on this increase in salience, broadened the scope of conflict to the federal level. This marked the beginning of the end of the equity regime. The preferred policy from ideological centrists and the broader public was standards-based reform. However, because this reform did not appeal to some strong groups from within both Republican and Democrat constituencies, it fell prey to institutional difficulties inherent in creating policy change. Once pressure to solve the perceived public education crisis peaked in 2000, a bipartisan effort overcame these obstacles and No Child Left Behind was passed in 2002. The new policy regime focused on government responsibility to educate all students, and to monitor educational outputs through standards-based accountability measures.

The findings indicate, and the author argues, that education policy is very difficult to change. It took twenty years (from start to finish) to dismantle one paradigm and install another. For those who are unhappy with the status quo being No Child Left Behind (NCLB), this is not good news.

I am not afraid to speak up and criticize NCLB. Some parts are worse than others, in my humble opinion, but it really is a package deal. The use of standardized testing, and using results to justify punitive “accountability” measures, is something I’m sure will pop up frequently in my future posts, and not in a positive tone. But if I take seriously McGuinn’s findings, the future is likely to be filled with standardized testing. Moreover, changing the status quo will require not just the realization that standardized testing does not accomplish what NCLB hoped it would; it will also require large public concern about the state of public education. NCLB came about only after public education became the most important issues in America (measured by opinion polls). I do not think we will see another paradigm shift for a long time, especially given the salience of economic issues which does not show much sign of decline.

Let’s Talk About Immigration

It’s environmental and energy policy day, but today we’re going to think a little broader about the impact of non-environmental policies on the environment. I’m participating in a seminar this semester on human population growth and consumption and we spent this week discussing the implications of immigration on population growth and rising consumption. Few people, including environmentalists, think about the implications of immigration on the environment and on energy usage.
First, it is important to draw the distinction between immigrants and immigration. I, and other environmental writers on this topic, do not want to point a finger at individual immigrants and blame them for rising consumption and environmental damage due to population growth in the US. We are speaking instead about the general trend of increasing immigration rates. The US population continues to increase, despite reproduction being at a replacement rate, due to high levels of immigration (around 1 million people annually). Although there are moral arguments to allow people from less fortunate, developing countries the chance at a “better” life in the US, we must consider the moral implications of such opportunities. Is it moral to allow over-consumption of resources? Or increased energy demand, leading to increased emissions of harmful gases and dependency on foreign sources of fuel?
The “better” life promised by migration to America is highly dependent on consumption. Although it is not true for all immigrants, many move to the US with the goal of getting a better job. A better job means more disposable income to be spent on consumption, unless the money is sent back to their home country. The American way of life involves significantly greater energy use than other countries of the world. Per capita, the US used 312 million BTUs (British thermal units) in 2010, compared to the world average of 74 million BTU the same year (1). The same is true for many other resources, including freshwater and meat consumption. The UN reports that Americans use 215 cubic meters (7593 cubic feet) per capita per year, compared to 4 cubic meters (141 cubic feet) per capita per year in Mali (2). In 2002, Americans consumed an average of 124.8 kilograms (275.1 pounds) of meat per capita, compared to 79.6 kilograms (125.5 pounds) in the United Kingdom and 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds) in Bhutan (3). It is likely that new immigrants take some time to assimilate into this culture of high consumption and have lower consumption levels than Americans born and raised in this culture. However, as they live here longer and raise the next generation, they and their children are likely to have comparable rates of energy and resource consumption.
Additionally, higher population levels create environmental degradation. More people need more homes, leading to urbanization, urban sprawl, sub-urbanization, and subdivision of rural properties. More people and more consumption lead to higher levels of waste, requiring larger landfills and greater waste-water treatment capacity. More people means more food production leading to greater soil erosion, as well as higher levels of fertilizer leaching and pesticide spread. Tom Horton, a blogger in the ecologically fragile Chesapeake Bay area, argues that while granting amnesty to immigrants currently living in the US is laudable, the current immigration bill will end up encouraging greater immigration into the US, ultimately increasing the US population by 40% by 2050 (4). He makes the important point that concentrating our efforts on decreasing per capita consumption will not make a difference if the number of people is continually increasing. And, my favorite point he makes, “we’ve also learned that like the essential plant nutrients such as nitrogen which are degrading the Bay, too much of a good thing – including humans with aspirations for a better life – can overwhelm the rest of nature.”
It’s difficult for me to take a stand against immigration, as I strongly believe that immigrants contribute greatly to the cultural melting pot of this country. In a nation of immigrants, it is difficult to draw the line and prevent others from coming here and benefiting as we have. I don’t think Americans have a greater right to consume than non-Americans or immigrants. It is extremely important, for both environmental and moral reasons, to decrease American per capita consumption. However, I do think it is important in debating immigration policy to at least consider the environmental implications of allowing more people to come to the US and live like Americans when the world can barely sustain Americans living like Americans.
(1) http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=85&t=1
(2) http://www.unwater.org/downloads/Water_facts_and_trends.pdf
(3) http://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/2009/sep/02/meat-consumption-per-capita-climate-change
(4)http://www.bayjournal.com/article/immigration_reform_needs_to_be_handled_very_carefully

Frustrations Erupt Over Common Core and NYS Assessments

This week, several sources (see here and here) have reported and blogged about the NYSED Commissioner John King and his scheduled PTA meetings scheduled around the state. While I understand citizens’ frustrations over these changes, publicly decrying and degrading Dr. King on the web is not a productive plan of action. I hope our communities rise above the fray and share their concerns in a collaborative way. We have all fallen victim to poor planning and lack of proper time management- the variable of time has compressed every aspect of these changes, increasing stress, anxiety, and resistance to these changes at home and in our schools. The rapid and premature implementation timeline has placed unnecessary pressure on the stakeholders in the system, and we are now seeing the results.

Unfortunately, these purposeful, open public meetings probably should have come before the new curricula, assessments, and teacher evaluations were unveiled as part of the state’s Race to the Top (RttT) implementation. The state leadership skipped a valuable opportunity to discuss in a positive, yet objective manner the benefits to children, teachers, taxpayers, and the nation for increasing the rigor of curriculum and accountability. They could have explained the underlying research; they could have allotted time to explain how teachers would be trained for the new curriculum and the new assessments. If you ask any school administrator in NYS, they will likely tell you they have been building the plane while it is flying, as I am sure many have shared this video at professional development sessions and faculty meetings around the state.

The NYSED leadership’s three- to five-year vision could have been clearly articulated and transparent, where the plans to manage anticipated test score reductions and resultant teacher evaluations clearly explained. Parents, school professionals, and taxpayers would have been given time to digest and understand the changes, and most importantly, be given an opportunity to weigh and consider the benefits or negative consequences. If our state leadership is now seeking to have open discourse about the state of our schools, the opportunity may be lost- key stakeholders are now angry and taking a resistant stance. Maybe we all should have been given a real opportunity to discuss these issues before NYS accepted the Race to the Top grant award.

It will be very interesting to see what this year’s results bring, especially if we use other RttT states like Kentucky as models for improvement. What will our state leaders say next year if our results mimic theirs?