I recently finished reading my new favorite energy and energy policy book, “Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Energy Policy Debate” by Dr. Vaclav Smil. While I highly recommend that anyone interested in energy policy or the science of our energy systems invest in the book, I’d like to offer a sneak peek into the debunked myths that Dr. Smil addresses. He begins with myths that have somehow persisted through the decades (or centuries). The first myth is that electric cars will be the transportation method of the future. Dr. Smil reminds us that electricity is not free or, in most cases, clean. The majority of electricity comes from fossil fuel power plants, mostly coal and natural gas. As concerns about mountain top removal, hydraulic fracturing, and carbon emissions come up in the mainstream news, it’s easy to forget that those sources of energy power our electronic devices, lights, appliances, and so on. Adding our cars to that pressure would hugely increase the demand for electricity, resulting in the need to build many more power plants (or, more ideally, renewable generation), new transmission lines, and stations that are capable of recharging vehicles. Electricity generation and transmission are also highly inefficient, resulting in losses of electricity at the plant and in the lines. While renewable energy generation is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades, Dr. Smil argues that it is unrealistic to think that this will be enough to power a fleet of electric cars. However, he finds hope in the increased fuel efficiency standards in gasoline and diesel engines, both those realized at this time and the potential for greater increases under tighter standards.
Dr. Smil then turns his attention to more recently in-the-news “myths”, or more accurately, over-hyped technologies or principles, including peak oil, carbon sequestration, biofuels from plants, wind power, and the pace of energy transitions. His main point in this section is that it is very easy to be either overly pessimistic about the energy situation we face or, perhaps more disconcertingly, to be overly optimistic about both new technologies and energy sources and the rate at which they can be implemented. For example, corn ethanol policy is meant to help farmers by providing a market for their crop, to reduce our energy dependence on other nations, and to reduce carbon emissions. However, it is debatable whether any of those goals have been even slightly achieved. Additionally, the resource is limited in how much can be produced and how much can be demanded. Currently, about 10% of the gasoline you pump into your vehicle is ethanol and the EPA is hesitant to raise that to 15%, so the industry has hit a “blend wall” wherein the market is saturated with product unless the gasoline consumption of the U.S. increases. On the other hand, Smil points out that if we tried to replace all of the gasoline used in U.S. with corn ethanol, more arable land would be required to produce the corn required than actually exists in the United States.
In a similar manner with the other energy myths, misconceptions, and overexcitements, Dr. Smil uses both the extensive body of literature on various energy sources and some simple arithmetic to provide sound evidence and advice to his audience, from concerned citizens to policymakers.